Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
